Bitcoin Price to Skyrocket in Potential Oil Crisis: Arthur Hayes
• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an essay outlining potential scenarios that could make oil prices boom, and consequently send Bitcoin’s price skyrocketing.
• Hayes discussed three possible futures that could lead to a supply shortage of oil – conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, intentional production cuts by key producers, or sabotage on critical infrastructure.
• He concluded that the first scenario is most likely if Iran continues with Uranium enrichment, which would result in Israel/Saudi Arabia taking military action and shutting down the strait, leading to a huge drop in global oil supplies.
How Bitcoin’s Price Will Moon During a Potential Oil Crisis: Arthur Hayes
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an essay on Thursday outlining „realistic potential situations“ that could make oil prices boom, and make Bitcoin’s price skyrocket as a result.
Oil Supply Shortage Scenarios
In his blog post titled „Curve Ball,“ Hayes described three possible futures that could lead to an oil supply shortage across the globe, given the current state of geopolitical tensions. These include Iran escalating its conflict with Israel/ Saudi Arabia by closing the Strait of Hormuz; large oil producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc) intentionally reducing their production; or critical oil/gas infrastructure being taken offline due to deliberate sabotage.
Most Likely Scenario
Hayes determined that the first scenario would be most likely since Iran’s Uranium enrichment could motivate Israel and Saudi Arabi to take military action against them. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would remove 17.3 million barrels per day from global markets.
Consequences for Monetary Policy
The former CEO argued that such a scenario could spur central banks across the world – including the Federal Reserve – to return to a market-friendly loose monetary policy.